OPEC+ Steps Up Gas Prices in US, Fueling Inflation Concerns
In a surprise move, OPEC+ announced Sunday that it would slash oil production by more than 1.6 million barrels a day starting May, with the cut set to run through the end of the year. The move sent shockwaves through global energy markets, leading to a surge in Brent crude futures and WTI, the US benchmark.
According to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, which tracks gas prices for AAA, OPEC's decision is likely to "reawaken the inflation monster." This suggests that the White House will face increased pressure to respond to rising gas prices. In fact, gas futures are already feeling the pinch, with RBOB, the most closely watched wholesale gasoline price, up 8 cents a gallon or about 3% in morning trading.
As a result, US drivers can expect to see gas prices rise, with Kloza predicting that prices could reach $3.80 to $3.90 per gallon relatively quickly. While this may seem like a small increase compared to the record highs seen last year ($5.02 per gallon), it's worth noting that even at $3.51, US gas prices are still just below their February 2022 average of $3.53.
The reason for this is that while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has released oil in recent months, OPEC's production cut will make it challenging to offset this decline. Kloza noted that one factor working in favor of US producers is the potential release of oil from the SPR and the fact that US oil production and refining capacity have both increased.
However, with a 1 million-barrel-per-day production cut, the market may struggle to absorb the loss. As a result, gas prices are likely to rise, particularly if there are disruptions in production along the Gulf Coast, which could be exacerbated by hurricanes or other severe weather events.
Ultimately, while OPEC's decision is unlikely to push US gas prices back above $5 per gallon just yet, it will undoubtedly put upward pressure on prices and fuel concerns about inflation.
In a surprise move, OPEC+ announced Sunday that it would slash oil production by more than 1.6 million barrels a day starting May, with the cut set to run through the end of the year. The move sent shockwaves through global energy markets, leading to a surge in Brent crude futures and WTI, the US benchmark.
According to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, which tracks gas prices for AAA, OPEC's decision is likely to "reawaken the inflation monster." This suggests that the White House will face increased pressure to respond to rising gas prices. In fact, gas futures are already feeling the pinch, with RBOB, the most closely watched wholesale gasoline price, up 8 cents a gallon or about 3% in morning trading.
As a result, US drivers can expect to see gas prices rise, with Kloza predicting that prices could reach $3.80 to $3.90 per gallon relatively quickly. While this may seem like a small increase compared to the record highs seen last year ($5.02 per gallon), it's worth noting that even at $3.51, US gas prices are still just below their February 2022 average of $3.53.
The reason for this is that while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has released oil in recent months, OPEC's production cut will make it challenging to offset this decline. Kloza noted that one factor working in favor of US producers is the potential release of oil from the SPR and the fact that US oil production and refining capacity have both increased.
However, with a 1 million-barrel-per-day production cut, the market may struggle to absorb the loss. As a result, gas prices are likely to rise, particularly if there are disruptions in production along the Gulf Coast, which could be exacerbated by hurricanes or other severe weather events.
Ultimately, while OPEC's decision is unlikely to push US gas prices back above $5 per gallon just yet, it will undoubtedly put upward pressure on prices and fuel concerns about inflation.