The world's murder rate has plummeted over the past two decades, defying a long-held narrative that violent crime is always on the rise. According to data from the World Bank, the global homicide rate has fallen by nearly a quarter since 2000, with around 5.2 deaths per 100,000 people recorded in 2023.
This decline is all the more surprising given the widespread perception that violence is increasing globally. A recent survey found that 70% of people in 30 countries believe the world is becoming more violent and dangerous, a notion that has been perpetuated by Hollywood's portrayal of ancient violence and crime-ridden cities.
However, research suggests that this narrative was always overly simplistic and based on a misconception of the past. Using coroner records to map every known killing in medieval English towns, criminologist Manuel Eisner found that homicide rates were actually relatively low – around 20-25 per 100,000 people in London and York, with even higher rates in Oxford.
Fast-forward to today, and we see that many cities are experiencing record-low murder rates. In London, for example, the number of homicides has decreased dramatically since the early 2000s, with just one fatality recorded through the first nine months of this year.
So what's behind this decline? Experts point to several factors, including improvements in state capacity, functioning courts and police forces, and targeted policing strategies. Economic and social conditions also play a role, as studies have found strong links between household distress and death rates from homicide, suicide, and drugs.
Perhaps most surprising of all is the impact of aging on crime rates. Research has shown that the share of young men committing violent crimes has declined significantly in recent years, as societies age and more people reach middle age.
The decline in global murder rates is a remarkable narrative violation – one that challenges our long-held assumptions about violence and crime. As Swati Sharma notes in Vox's newsletter, "Spotting a narrative violation is fun; building accurate narratives is even better."
This decline is all the more surprising given the widespread perception that violence is increasing globally. A recent survey found that 70% of people in 30 countries believe the world is becoming more violent and dangerous, a notion that has been perpetuated by Hollywood's portrayal of ancient violence and crime-ridden cities.
However, research suggests that this narrative was always overly simplistic and based on a misconception of the past. Using coroner records to map every known killing in medieval English towns, criminologist Manuel Eisner found that homicide rates were actually relatively low – around 20-25 per 100,000 people in London and York, with even higher rates in Oxford.
Fast-forward to today, and we see that many cities are experiencing record-low murder rates. In London, for example, the number of homicides has decreased dramatically since the early 2000s, with just one fatality recorded through the first nine months of this year.
So what's behind this decline? Experts point to several factors, including improvements in state capacity, functioning courts and police forces, and targeted policing strategies. Economic and social conditions also play a role, as studies have found strong links between household distress and death rates from homicide, suicide, and drugs.
Perhaps most surprising of all is the impact of aging on crime rates. Research has shown that the share of young men committing violent crimes has declined significantly in recent years, as societies age and more people reach middle age.
The decline in global murder rates is a remarkable narrative violation – one that challenges our long-held assumptions about violence and crime. As Swati Sharma notes in Vox's newsletter, "Spotting a narrative violation is fun; building accurate narratives is even better."
I mean, think about it... we've been living under this idea that crime rates are always on the rise, but now it seems like we're seeing a major correction. Like, what's really going on? 
Is it just because we're getting better at policing and stuff? Or is there something deeper going on here? Maybe it's not as simple as "crime rates are rising"... maybe our perceptions of crime are just plain wrong? 
It's also interesting to see how our narratives around violence can be skewed by media portrayals. So yeah, let's all try to keep things balanced and realistic, 'kay? 
i mean, like, people thought violent crime was always on the rise but actually it's been going down for like 20 years now! 
that's such a game changer. and i love how researchers are looking into why this is happening - it sounds like its not just about the police or courts, but also about economic & social conditions and people getting older (which makes sense since younger guys committing crimes has gone down). idk what you think is behind it all but its def a topic to explore! 
Now it turns out crime rates have actually been dropping for two decades? That's wild, man! 
I mean, you'd think with all the crime dramas on TV and in movies we'd see more violence in real life. But nope, experts say that's just not the case. And it's interesting to hear that aging is a big factor – older guys are less likely to commit violent crimes? That makes sense, I guess. Less testosterone, fewer video games... 