Federal Reserve Sees Uncertainty Amid Missing Inflation Data
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled its planned release of October's consumer price index (CPI) due to the ongoing government shutdown, leaving policymakers at the Federal Reserve with limited data to inform their decision on cutting interest rates. The delay heightens uncertainty over the state of the US economy, where price growth remains above normal levels.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had already cautioned that navigating the economy without standard data would be akin to "driving in the fog," but officials will still gather every available scrap of information and evaluate it carefully before making a decision. Powell has emphasized the need for caution in light of recent CPI releases, which have shown price growth persisting above typical levels.
The Fed's stance on interest rates has been influenced by President Donald Trump's efforts to tackle affordability concerns, including several steps taken recently. Despite this, Fed officials are weighing the pros and cons of cutting rates further, with Powell having expressed a desire to tread carefully in the absence of key economic data.
However, a speech by one Fed policymaker suggests that expectations for another rate cut may be growing. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated that there was still room for adjustment in the near term. The latest jobs report, released after the shutdown, showed 119,000 new jobs but an uptick in the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2021.
The missing data means that the Fed will have limited insight into October's economic performance. The full report for November is expected to be released, with some supplementary information on job creation or loss in October to be published alongside it – a week after the next Fed meeting.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled its planned release of October's consumer price index (CPI) due to the ongoing government shutdown, leaving policymakers at the Federal Reserve with limited data to inform their decision on cutting interest rates. The delay heightens uncertainty over the state of the US economy, where price growth remains above normal levels.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had already cautioned that navigating the economy without standard data would be akin to "driving in the fog," but officials will still gather every available scrap of information and evaluate it carefully before making a decision. Powell has emphasized the need for caution in light of recent CPI releases, which have shown price growth persisting above typical levels.
The Fed's stance on interest rates has been influenced by President Donald Trump's efforts to tackle affordability concerns, including several steps taken recently. Despite this, Fed officials are weighing the pros and cons of cutting rates further, with Powell having expressed a desire to tread carefully in the absence of key economic data.
However, a speech by one Fed policymaker suggests that expectations for another rate cut may be growing. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated that there was still room for adjustment in the near term. The latest jobs report, released after the shutdown, showed 119,000 new jobs but an uptick in the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2021.
The missing data means that the Fed will have limited insight into October's economic performance. The full report for November is expected to be released, with some supplementary information on job creation or loss in October to be published alongside it – a week after the next Fed meeting.
I was planning a road trip to Yellowstone next month and now I'm worried about the impact of inflation on gas prices 
can you imagine driving all that way only to hit some major price hike halfway through? 
at least they're being cautious, though - it's better to wait for solid data than to cut rates too soon and mess up the economy 
John Williams sounds like a straight shooter, I love that he's not sugarcoating things 
fingers crossed the Fed makes an informed decision 
. Powell said it's like driving in the fog, but still they're gonna try to navigate it. And with that speech from John Williams, now I'm thinking maybe they should cut rates 
... but on the other hand, if the economy keeps growing, maybe they shouldn't? It's all just so confusing 
.
. if they cut interest rates too much, people might lose faith in the economy, but if they don't cut them at all, prices are gonna keep rising and that's bad for everyone 
.
.
John Williams is all like "we've still got wiggle room" but Powell's over here being all cautious 
meanwhile the market's all like "rate cut, rate cut, we need it now!" 
how are they supposed to make a decision without that one key piece of info? 
We'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out 
It's like trying to play a game w/o the rules lol. And with trump wanting to lower interest rates for affordability... 
John Williams is like "hey, we can still adjust" but I'm over here like "but what about the data?!" 
Guess we'll just have to wait and see what they decide next month 
i mean, if there's still room for adjustment in the near term, that's good to know, right? but what about the jobs report? 119k new jobs isn't bad, but the unemployment rate is kinda high... i guess we'll just have to wait and see 
. it's like, how are policymakers supposed to make informed decisions without the usual numbers? and now this fed policymaker is saying we still have room for adjustment? i'm not sure i trust that 
the economy is already super uncertain as it is, can we really afford more rate cuts right now? 
...
... anyway, I'm hoping John Williams knows what he's talking about when it comes to rate cuts 
.
! Nowadays, it's like they're playing a game of economic musical chairs... who knows what the real economy is doing? 
And with this government shutdown, they've got nothing to go off but speculation and guesswork. It's like trying to navigate through a foggy day without a map 
. And can someone please explain to me what's going on with those jobs numbers? 119k new jobs, but unemployment rate is up? It's all so... mixed 
, it's not all sunshine and rainbows either... So, should they cut interest rates or wait? I dunno... Maybe John Williams is onto something with his speech 
. so now they're gonna make decisions based on 'every available scrap of information'... sounds legit 
. anyway, at least they're trying to gather all the info they can, even if it is from ancient history... 
. I mean, isn't it like, basic info for economic forecasting? Powell's warning about driving in the fog is low-key relatable tbh 
. I'm all for caution, but sometimes it feels like they're just winging it 
. Still hoping the next rate cut isn't too drastic tho 