Markets have grown accustomed to President Trump's bombastic rhetoric, and for now, his latest tariff threat has had little impact on London stocks. The FTSE 100 index closed down 0.4%, a relatively modest drop that failed to stir panic. In contrast, European markets took a harder hit.
While it's true that markets have learned to temper their reactions to Trump's initial threats, the long-term risks associated with his policies remain substantial. Economists warn that prolonged trade tensions could lead to a UK or eurozone recession, with potentially devastating consequences for global economic stability.
Moreover, the escalating rhetoric between the US and Europe raises concerns about the potential for tit-for-tat measures in capital markets. German economist George Saravelos suggests that European funds may be less willing to invest in US assets if Trump's actions are seen as a threat to the transatlantic alliance. The notion of "weaponizing capital" has sparked alarm among market players, with some fearing that it could lead to a significant disruption in global financial markets.
The implications of such a move would be far-reaching, with European countries owning nearly twice as much US debt and equities as the rest of the world combined. A coordinated effort by European nations to sell off their US holdings could potentially drive up borrowing costs or even lead to a decline in the value of the dollar.
However, it's unlikely that such a move would be taken without careful consideration. The idea of restricting access to the single market for US companies is being discussed in Brussels, but any such decision would require significant diplomatic effort and coordination among European nations.
For now, markets are choosing to focus on the immediate risks associated with Trump's policies rather than speculating about potential long-term consequences. As the situation continues to unfold, investors will be watching closely for signs of escalation or de-escalation in tensions between the US and Europe.
While it's true that markets have learned to temper their reactions to Trump's initial threats, the long-term risks associated with his policies remain substantial. Economists warn that prolonged trade tensions could lead to a UK or eurozone recession, with potentially devastating consequences for global economic stability.
Moreover, the escalating rhetoric between the US and Europe raises concerns about the potential for tit-for-tat measures in capital markets. German economist George Saravelos suggests that European funds may be less willing to invest in US assets if Trump's actions are seen as a threat to the transatlantic alliance. The notion of "weaponizing capital" has sparked alarm among market players, with some fearing that it could lead to a significant disruption in global financial markets.
The implications of such a move would be far-reaching, with European countries owning nearly twice as much US debt and equities as the rest of the world combined. A coordinated effort by European nations to sell off their US holdings could potentially drive up borrowing costs or even lead to a decline in the value of the dollar.
However, it's unlikely that such a move would be taken without careful consideration. The idea of restricting access to the single market for US companies is being discussed in Brussels, but any such decision would require significant diplomatic effort and coordination among European nations.
For now, markets are choosing to focus on the immediate risks associated with Trump's policies rather than speculating about potential long-term consequences. As the situation continues to unfold, investors will be watching closely for signs of escalation or de-escalation in tensions between the US and Europe.