OPEC+ Unleashes Inflationary Pressure: US Gas Prices Poised for Spike
A surprise move by OPEC+ to slash oil production has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with US gas prices expected to feel the pinch. The cartel's decision to cut output by more than 1.6 million barrels per day, effective May 2023, will have an immediate impact on gasoline futures and subsequently translate into higher prices for US drivers.
According to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, OPEC+ is "rewakening the inflation monster" with this move. The White House is likely to be concerned about the implications, as higher gas prices can erode consumer spending power and reduce economic growth. Kloza predicts that US gas prices could reach $3.80 to $3.90 in relatively short order.
The national average for US gas prices stands at $3.51, but experts believe it's a temporary reprieve. A year ago, the average price was $4.19 per gallon, just below the record high of $5.02 set on June 14, 2022. The decline in prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy market disruptions has been largely driven by oil releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Kloza notes that while the US plans additional SPR releases, which could help moderate prices, a cut of 1 million barrels per day of oil by OPEC+ will not be easily offset. The cartel's ability to reduce production and their motivation for doing so are key factors in this scenario. The analyst believes that despite concerns about recession-induced demand reductions, US gas prices may yet recover, potentially reaching year-earlier levels by the end of summer if there are disruptions to oil production along the Gulf Coast.
A surprise move by OPEC+ to slash oil production has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with US gas prices expected to feel the pinch. The cartel's decision to cut output by more than 1.6 million barrels per day, effective May 2023, will have an immediate impact on gasoline futures and subsequently translate into higher prices for US drivers.
According to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, OPEC+ is "rewakening the inflation monster" with this move. The White House is likely to be concerned about the implications, as higher gas prices can erode consumer spending power and reduce economic growth. Kloza predicts that US gas prices could reach $3.80 to $3.90 in relatively short order.
The national average for US gas prices stands at $3.51, but experts believe it's a temporary reprieve. A year ago, the average price was $4.19 per gallon, just below the record high of $5.02 set on June 14, 2022. The decline in prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy market disruptions has been largely driven by oil releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Kloza notes that while the US plans additional SPR releases, which could help moderate prices, a cut of 1 million barrels per day of oil by OPEC+ will not be easily offset. The cartel's ability to reduce production and their motivation for doing so are key factors in this scenario. The analyst believes that despite concerns about recession-induced demand reductions, US gas prices may yet recover, potentially reaching year-earlier levels by the end of summer if there are disruptions to oil production along the Gulf Coast.