Washington's Diplomatic Gambit Falls Flat as Putin Strikes Back
The US State Department breathed a collective sigh of relief on Monday after the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine seemed to have stabilized. However, this brief respite was short-lived as Vladimir Putin promptly responded with another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The back-and-forth between Washington and Moscow has become an all-too-familiar pattern. Diplomatic battles are fought by day, with hopeful statements issued from various capitals, while at night, Russia brutalizes Ukraine, reminding the world that war remains Putin's preferred tool for achieving "peace".
Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare as the attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday. The country is able to track missile launches from Russian territory due to timely US intelligence. Outside the author's window, two Ukrainian air force fighter jets roared overhead - American F-16s supplied to Ukraine by one of its European allies.
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate, and deep concern. Yet, this script has played out before. Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv and other European capitals manage to fend off. They stabilize the situation but never actually win the battle.
The problem lies in Washington's inability to deter Moscow through words or deeds. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory it already controls in Ukraine's south or east. Putin, however, remains convinced that time is on his side, and Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion.
The US must recognize this reality and take concrete steps to change the trajectory of events. If Washington doesn't do so, Putin will continue to believe that he can outmaneuver Ukraine and its allies. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors such as Trump's desire to broker a ceasefire and pave his way to a Nobel peace prize, and Zelenskyy's twin challenges - not to alienate a key ally and to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any US initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable - are driving the talks.
In conclusion, Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect Trump's reluctance to change the course of events if they stand together and strengthen their defense capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither Trump nor Putin will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults largely relies on the US.
The US State Department breathed a collective sigh of relief on Monday after the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine seemed to have stabilized. However, this brief respite was short-lived as Vladimir Putin promptly responded with another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The back-and-forth between Washington and Moscow has become an all-too-familiar pattern. Diplomatic battles are fought by day, with hopeful statements issued from various capitals, while at night, Russia brutalizes Ukraine, reminding the world that war remains Putin's preferred tool for achieving "peace".
Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare as the attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday. The country is able to track missile launches from Russian territory due to timely US intelligence. Outside the author's window, two Ukrainian air force fighter jets roared overhead - American F-16s supplied to Ukraine by one of its European allies.
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate, and deep concern. Yet, this script has played out before. Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv and other European capitals manage to fend off. They stabilize the situation but never actually win the battle.
The problem lies in Washington's inability to deter Moscow through words or deeds. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory it already controls in Ukraine's south or east. Putin, however, remains convinced that time is on his side, and Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion.
The US must recognize this reality and take concrete steps to change the trajectory of events. If Washington doesn't do so, Putin will continue to believe that he can outmaneuver Ukraine and its allies. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors such as Trump's desire to broker a ceasefire and pave his way to a Nobel peace prize, and Zelenskyy's twin challenges - not to alienate a key ally and to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any US initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable - are driving the talks.
In conclusion, Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect Trump's reluctance to change the course of events if they stand together and strengthen their defense capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither Trump nor Putin will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults largely relies on the US.