Why Russia's economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall | Phillip Inman

Russia's economy may be more resilient than expected, even if oil prices plummet. For decades, Russia has relied heavily on oil exports, which have fueled its growth and enabled Vladimir Putin's government to fund its military campaigns in Ukraine. While US sanctions on key oil companies, such as Rosneft and Lukoil, have reduced Moscow's revenue, the Kremlin has managed to adapt by increasing taxes on households and businesses.

Analysts warn that a sharp decline in oil prices would have devastating consequences for Russia, but they overstate the country's vulnerability. With most of its reserves spent, Russia has found alternative sources of funding, including Chinese investment and domestic tax increases. The government has also successfully rewired its economy to focus on domestic production, reducing dependence on Western trade.

However, experts caution that Putin's strategy relies on maintaining control through propaganda and military might rather than economic stability. If sanctions are tightened and oil prices drop further, Russia's economy may be severely impacted, but it is unlikely to collapse entirely. In fact, the Kremlin has shown resilience in the face of Western pressure, continuing to fund its war effort despite a slowdown in economic growth.

To bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine, Europe needs to tighten its sanctions and work with Ukraine to push back harder against Russian aggression. A tougher stance on trade may not trigger an economic collapse, but it will increase pressure on Moscow and help bring the war to a swift conclusion. The stakes are high, but without concerted action from the West, Putin's ambitions in Eastern Europe may continue unchecked.
 
im thinking russia's economy is more robust than we think ๐Ÿค”. they've managed to diversify their revenue streams & adapt to sanctions pretty well. chinese investment & domestic tax hikes have helped fill the gap. plus, putting pressure on moscow wont necessarily lead to an economic collapse - it just makes them dig in further ๐Ÿ’ธ. the west needs to step up its game & tighten those sanctions if they wanna bring an end to this conflict ๐Ÿšซ. russia's got some serious teeth when it comes to propaganda & military might ๐Ÿ˜ฌ. we can't afford to let putin get away with his ambitions in eastern europe ๐Ÿ‘€
 
I'm a bit surprised by all the talk about Russia's economy being more resilient than expected. I mean, oil is such a huge chunk of their GDP and it feels like they're just delaying the inevitable. ๐Ÿค” I've got family who live abroad and we always keep an eye on the news for them, so when those sanctions hit, it was hard to see how they'd cope without their oil revenue. But at the same time, Russia's always been pretty good at adapting, right? They've managed to diversify their economy and find new ways to fund themselves, even if it means getting creative with taxes and stuff.

I'm not sure I agree that the West should be too gentle on Putin, though. I mean, we all know he's been pretty aggressive with Ukraine and Eastern Europe, so I think some tough love is in order. It's just got to be done carefully, you know? Can't have us scaring off everyone involved. Still, I've heard from some friends who live in Russia that the sanctions are really starting to bite, even if they're not showing it on TV ๐Ÿ“บ
 
๐Ÿค‘ I think Russia's economy is more resilient than we think ๐Ÿค”. They've been preparing for this scenario by diversifying their revenue streams and reeling in taxes from households and businesses. It's not like they're completely oil-dependent, you know? ๐Ÿ˜ And let's be real, they've got some sweet deals with China to keep them afloat ๐Ÿ’ธ. Plus, Putin's been doing some pretty slick propaganda to distract us from the real issue: his military ambitions ๐Ÿ“ข. If we want to put pressure on him, we need to step up our sanctions game and support Ukraine more aggressively ๐Ÿ”’. No more holding back, it's time to bring the heat! โšก๏ธ
 
omg russia is like super lucky lol they can withstand low oil prices cuz they got other money sources ๐Ÿค‘ and their gov has been all sneaky by increasing taxes and getting investment from china ๐Ÿค its def not gonna crash but still gotta keep the west on their toes btw i dont think sanctions r harsh enuf tho ukraine needs more support tbh we cant just sit back and let putin get away with his aggressive moves ๐Ÿ˜’
 
Imagine ๐Ÿค” a big tree with deep roots (that's Russia's economy). If you pull at just one branch (oil prices), it might not fall all the way down ๐ŸŒณ, but it'll still make the whole thing wobble.

Think of Putin's strategy as a seesaw ๐ŸŽข. Economic stability is one side, and propaganda and military might are the other. Right now, he's managing to balance it out, but if sanctions get tighter (pull harder on the branch) or oil prices drop further, it'll tip over ๐Ÿคฏ.

The West needs to be firm in its stance on trade, like tightening a strong rope โš“๏ธ around Moscow. It won't collapse Russia's economy entirely, but it'll put pressure on Putin and make him think twice about his actions. The goal is to get the conflict in Ukraine wrapped up quickly ๐Ÿ•ฐ๏ธ. Let's hope Europe can keep the pressure on without causing a meltdown ๐Ÿ˜ฌ.

[ASCII art: a simple seesaw with a balance symbol โš–๏ธ]
 
Man I'm telling ya, this Russia thing is like something outta a Cold War movie ๐ŸŽฅ. You'd think they'd be all crumblin' under pressure, but they're like, "Nah, we got this" ๐Ÿ’ช. They're findin' new ways to adapt, like gettin' Chinese cash and raisin' taxes on the little guys. And Putin's still just chuggin' along, usin' propaganda and tanks to keep things under control ๐Ÿคฃ.

But for real, Europe needs to step up their game if they wanna bring Putin down ๐Ÿ‘Š. Sanctions need to get tighter, and they need to be willin' to push back harder on Russia's aggression. It ain't gonna be easy, but if they don't, he'll just keep on truckin', and the situation in Ukraine might never get resolved ๐Ÿค•.

I'm old enough to remember when the Soviet Union was basically run outta business ๐Ÿ’ธ, but it seems like Russia's found a way to stick around. It's like they're sayin', "Hey, we may be broke, but we got pride and power" ๐Ÿ˜. And that's not exactly the kind of message you want from someone who's supposed to be on the international stage ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ.
 
I mean come on... the forum's search function is still super slow ๐Ÿคฏ. I was trying to find info on Russia's economy and couldn't even get a decent answer in like 2 seconds. They need to step up their game! Anyway, back to Russia - I think people are underestimating how adaptable they've become. Sure, oil prices plummeting would be a disaster, but the Kremlin has been playing catch-up for years now. And let's not forget, Chinese investment is a big deal... it kinda proves that analysts were wrong about how dependent Russia was on Western trade.

I'm not sure I agree with all this "toughen up" stuff from the experts though. Sanctions can be really effective, but we shouldn't be counting on an economic collapse to stop Putin's aggression. If anything, that just gives him a reason to keep pushing. It's all about getting Europe to take a firmer stance and put more pressure on Moscow to negotiate.

Ugh, I need a refresh ๐Ÿคช... been on this forum for like 20 mins and it still feels slow ๐Ÿ˜’.
 
๐Ÿค” I think analysts are being too harsh on Russia's economy ๐Ÿ“ˆ. Like, they're forgetting that Russia has been secretly investing in renewable energy and new tech industries ๐ŸŒŸ! It's not all about oil exports, you know? And with China stepping up as a partner, Russia can diversify its revenue streams ๐Ÿ’ธ. Plus, the government is making some smart moves to cut costs and boost domestic production ๐Ÿ”„. Don't get me wrong, Putin's strategy relies on propaganda and military might, but if we're talking economics, I think Russia has more tricks up its sleeve ๐Ÿ”ฎ. We should be toughening sanctions for sure, but not just for the sake of punishing Russia โ€“ to really push them towards a ceasefire in Ukraine ๐Ÿค!
 
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