As the holiday season approaches, two distinct narratives are emerging. On one hand, high-income individuals and those living in wealthier parts of the country will likely experience a robust holiday season. With average salaries rising by 4.5-6.7% and stock markets increasing by over 13% this year, these consumers are less cautious about spending.
A stroll through upscale neighborhoods such as Soho, Georgetown, or Beacon Hill reveals restaurants offering expensive yet popular items like $49 chicken parmesan and $16 baked potatoes, with tables packed to the brim. Similarly, top-tier steakhouses in Las Vegas remain popular despite high prices, with patrons willing to pay upwards of $165 for a porterhouse.
However, this prosperity story does not extend to the broader population. Analysis from HR firms Paychex and ADP indicates that hourly wages for blue-collar workers have been stagnant at 2.58% for over a year, making it challenging for many individuals to make ends meet. The top 10% of earners account for half of spending, but those below this demographic are reeling from credit card debt, struggling to afford rent, and are largely absent from the stock market boom.
The economic outlook is further complicated by millions of job losses due to corporate mismanagement, restructuring, and the impact of AI. As a result, many consumers will be tightening their belts during the holiday season, leading to subdued sales figures. According to S&P Global Ratings, holiday sales are expected to grow just 4% in 2025, with most increases driven by price inflation rather than volume sales.
Even consulting giant Deloitte is projecting modest growth of 2.9-3.4% in holiday retail sales this year, significantly lower than the 4.2% increase from last year and the 10-year average. The main culprits behind these predictions are tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty.
"This is a tale of two economies," warns Van Hesser, chief strategist at credit rating analysis agency KBRA. "Wealthy consumers continue spending, but the less wealthy are pulling back – evidenced by earnings misses from fast-casual dining and decade-high unemployment for recent college graduates." As these trends persist, small businesses will face an uncertain holiday season, with many relying on holiday sales to make up half or more of their annual revenue.
A stroll through upscale neighborhoods such as Soho, Georgetown, or Beacon Hill reveals restaurants offering expensive yet popular items like $49 chicken parmesan and $16 baked potatoes, with tables packed to the brim. Similarly, top-tier steakhouses in Las Vegas remain popular despite high prices, with patrons willing to pay upwards of $165 for a porterhouse.
However, this prosperity story does not extend to the broader population. Analysis from HR firms Paychex and ADP indicates that hourly wages for blue-collar workers have been stagnant at 2.58% for over a year, making it challenging for many individuals to make ends meet. The top 10% of earners account for half of spending, but those below this demographic are reeling from credit card debt, struggling to afford rent, and are largely absent from the stock market boom.
The economic outlook is further complicated by millions of job losses due to corporate mismanagement, restructuring, and the impact of AI. As a result, many consumers will be tightening their belts during the holiday season, leading to subdued sales figures. According to S&P Global Ratings, holiday sales are expected to grow just 4% in 2025, with most increases driven by price inflation rather than volume sales.
Even consulting giant Deloitte is projecting modest growth of 2.9-3.4% in holiday retail sales this year, significantly lower than the 4.2% increase from last year and the 10-year average. The main culprits behind these predictions are tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty.
"This is a tale of two economies," warns Van Hesser, chief strategist at credit rating analysis agency KBRA. "Wealthy consumers continue spending, but the less wealthy are pulling back – evidenced by earnings misses from fast-casual dining and decade-high unemployment for recent college graduates." As these trends persist, small businesses will face an uncertain holiday season, with many relying on holiday sales to make up half or more of their annual revenue.
I feel bad for those people who can't afford the fancy holiday treats 
️. It's like they're stuck in a never-ending cycle of debt 
and it's really tough to make ends meet. And with all these job losses, it's no wonder they're having to tighten their belts 
. I hope small businesses can find ways to stay afloat this holiday season 
, but it's clear that not everyone is feeling the jingle bells 
...
rich ppl r doin alright but like the rest of us are struggling to even afford a decent meal let alone some fancy holiday gifts lol $49 chicken parmesan sounds like an arm & leg to me 
anyw the thing that's really got me worried tho is all these job losses due to AI 
it's like the future r already here but we ain't ready 
. It's like we're living in two worlds - the rich are doing alright, but for everyone else, it's a struggle. I mean, $49 chicken parmesan? That's just crazy talk 
. We need to do better than this.
Deloitte's prediction of 2.9-3.4% growth is even more underwhelming 
Small businesses will really be feeling the pinch this holiday season, relying on holiday sales to make up half or more of their annual revenue... it's like, the ultimate pressure cooker 
.
. We need to address the systemic issues that are creating this divide. It's time for some real solutions, not just temporary fixes 
.
.
the rich get richer 
. And don't even get me started on AI 
. I'm not surprised that holiday sales are gonna be low 
, especially with all the uncertainty and tariffs 
and the little guy is always the loser 
. Can't we just have some economic equality for once? 
can't believe we're getting all giddy about the holidays while people below the 10% mark are still struggling to scrape by 
And don't even get me started on the hourly wages for blue-collar workers – 2.58% stagnant for over a year?! That's just appalling 
Can't we just get a break around here?!
. I mean, 2.58% hourly wage increase for blue-collar workers? That's not even enough to keep up with inflation 
. It's gonna be a tough holiday season for a lot of people, I just hope small businesses can make it work 
The rich keep getting richer, but the rest of us are just trying to survive.
It's like they're trying to spin us into thinking that everything is okay when it's far from it 