High-income New Yorkers don't flee in droves when taxes rise, a stark contrast to the predictions of those who claim they will. Zohran Mamdani's campaign promise to increase income tax on top earners has sparked warnings that wealthy residents will abandon the city for lower-tax states. However, data suggests this exodus is more myth than reality.
In reality, high-income individuals are less mobile and rarely leave their homes due to taxes. Research conducted by millionaires' taxes in New Jersey and California found that people making $1 million-plus per year move at a rate of just 2.4% per year – half as often as those earning lower wages. When they do move, it's not usually for tax reasons; rather, it's because they have family or social ties elsewhere.
Moreover, high-income individuals are often tied to their communities through career and social networks. By the time they reach their peak earnings phase, they've built extensive professional and personal connections that keep them in one place. The social cost of uprooting far outweighs any potential tax savings, making it a bad deal for most.
Even tax reform efforts didn't spark a mass migration of high earners. A study of millionaire tax returns found no increase in migration out of states where taxes rose after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed in 2017. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, top earners did move to low-tax destinations – primarily due to the collapse of social lives and a desire for flexibility.
As society returns to normal, millionaire migration patterns have largely reverted to their pre-pandemic baselines. The lesson here is that high-income individuals are deeply rooted in their communities and prioritize social connections over tax savings. This reality has significant implications for state and city policies seeking to attract top earners.
Rather than attempting to lure them with tax cuts, places should focus on attracting and retaining young professionals who will eventually become the city's future elite. By providing affordable childcare, quality public schools, and other essential services, cities can support this pipeline of talent and create a more sustainable approach to taxation that benefits everyone – including high-income earners.
In reality, high-income individuals are less mobile and rarely leave their homes due to taxes. Research conducted by millionaires' taxes in New Jersey and California found that people making $1 million-plus per year move at a rate of just 2.4% per year – half as often as those earning lower wages. When they do move, it's not usually for tax reasons; rather, it's because they have family or social ties elsewhere.
Moreover, high-income individuals are often tied to their communities through career and social networks. By the time they reach their peak earnings phase, they've built extensive professional and personal connections that keep them in one place. The social cost of uprooting far outweighs any potential tax savings, making it a bad deal for most.
Even tax reform efforts didn't spark a mass migration of high earners. A study of millionaire tax returns found no increase in migration out of states where taxes rose after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed in 2017. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, top earners did move to low-tax destinations – primarily due to the collapse of social lives and a desire for flexibility.
As society returns to normal, millionaire migration patterns have largely reverted to their pre-pandemic baselines. The lesson here is that high-income individuals are deeply rooted in their communities and prioritize social connections over tax savings. This reality has significant implications for state and city policies seeking to attract top earners.
Rather than attempting to lure them with tax cuts, places should focus on attracting and retaining young professionals who will eventually become the city's future elite. By providing affordable childcare, quality public schools, and other essential services, cities can support this pipeline of talent and create a more sustainable approach to taxation that benefits everyone – including high-income earners.
"The things that make me different are the things that make me." 
People think they're gonna leave NY just 'cause taxes rise, but they ain't that mobile, fam 
They got family ties, social networks, and careers to keep 'em in one spot. It's all about the connections, you feel? 
. The data suggests they're actually pretty rooted in their communities - career and social ties keep 'em put 
. And let's be real, even when tax cuts happened, nobody really left... except maybe for those who needed a change of scenery during the pandemic 
. It's all about priorities: social connections win out over tax savings every time 
. So, instead of trying to woo 'em with more tax breaks, cities should focus on making their communities awesome for young pros - affordable childcare, quality schools... that kinda thing 
. That way, they can create a pipeline of talent and attract the future elite without all the drama 
.
. And honestly, who needs 'em to flee when we've got talented young pros waiting in the wings? 
. I mean, think about it - if we attract and retain the right people, we'll create a more sustainable economy that benefits everyone 
. And yeah, tax reform efforts haven't exactly been successful, but let's not give up yet! 
Maybe it's time to rethink our approach and focus on what really matters: quality education, affordable childcare, and all that jazz 
.
. Like, who moves because of a higher tax rate? Not my uncle, that's for sure 
Plus, with the pandemic showing us that even top earners aren't immune to moving due to other reasons, I think cities should focus on making a better quality of life for young pros instead of trying to attract high-income individuals who are already set. That way they can support their future leaders and keep them from leaving in the first place 
. And it's not even about tax savings – they're already set for life, so what's an extra few grand gonna do?
.
. So, instead of trying to chase after them with tax cuts, cities should be focusing on making their whole ecosystem more attractive for young professionals who are actually gonna grow up to be the next big thing 
I was like totally expecting all the high-income folks in NYC to bail when Zohran mentioned increasing taxes on top earners lol but turns out they're actually super tied down 
! Like, they're not even moving that often (only 2.4% a year, yikes!) and it's usually because of family/friends ties or career opportunities, not tax reasons 
. During COVID-19 though, they did flee to low-tax spots for flexibility, but now it's back to normal. So yeah, let's not try to woo them with tax cuts, 'kay? Instead, we should focus on supporting young pros and creating a sustainable approach to taxation that benefits everyone 
i mean think about it, if a 1m+ earner moves to another state, they're basically leaving behind all their network & friends 
its like, how many times can u move b4 u gotta start over? most people at that level are settled, got kids, and stuff, so tax savings just dont seem like a big deal 4 them 
It was just a bunch of hype.
... and btw what's up with all these states having millionaires' taxes 
. The only ones who might make a move are those with family or social connections elsewhere, but even then, it's not always about the taxes 
.
. Let's get this pipeline of future leaders moving and make cities more awesome for everyone!
.
Yeah, okay, that's cool, but it was during the pandemic when everyone's social lives were basically non-existent anyway 
. And now that things are back to normal, people have reverted to their old ways.
. It's like they have strong social ties or something 
. And let's be real, who wants to pick up and move when you've got a solid career and network in place? 
Plus, research shows that top earners are actually more likely to stay put than people making less money 